There has often been a lot of news about Ukraine and Russia in the news recently, but it does not explain very well why Russia is invading Ukraine, so I am going to give a detailed explanation in response to this.
Current situation in Russia and Ukraine
On 24 February 2022, Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine. Russia revealed that it had launched missile strikes against various military installations in Ukraine, including the Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv. Although the Russian Defence Minister has announced that the aim is not to occupy Ukraine, Russian troops have already advanced across the border. It is now likely that Russia will now advance its forces throughout the entire Eastern Donbas region, east of the pro-Russian-controlled areas. In response, Ukraine has declared martial law and started collecting military reserves.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Mr. Kleba, said from Twitter that “President Putin has embarked on a full-scale aggression against Ukraine”.
Reaction of other countries
US President Biden has condemned the attack, saying that Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction it will cause. The US and its allies have stated that they will unite and take action in a decisive manner and hold Russia responsible.
Russian military invasion？
Countries’ claims
The risk of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has increased, with US President Biden stating that it is “the beginning of a Russian invasion”.
As for President Putin, he claims that the military invasion of Ukraine is a ‘peacekeeping operation’ to protect Ukraine from the independent Lugansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’s Republic. Many Russians live in Ukraine and have been supplying the country with coronavirus vaccines. This means that it is for the protection of these Russians.
Is it a military invasion?
Sending troops across the border against another country without that country’s permission, even to protect Russians, is a military invasion. International peacekeeping operations generally occur with the consent of the parties to the conflict or with certain consents of the international community, which is not the case here. In this case, no permission has been obtained from anywhere, so Russia’s action falls into the category of disturbing the peaceful order.
war situation
The report states that the soldiers were killed. However, the Russian announcement puts the Russian death toll at 498 and the Ukrainian death toll at 2,870. The number of dead soldiers is a very different situation from the war situation, and it is difficult to accept either side’s version of events. However, unlike initial expectations, it is clear that the Ukraine is resisting Russia to a greater extent than expected, and that Russia is having a slow and difficult time gaining control.
Russian aims
Russia’s aim is seen as the killing or capture of Ukrainian President Zelensky and the fall of the current government in Ukraine and the establishment of a new Russian government.
Future of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
It has decided to supply supplies to Laina, and Sweden has supplied 5,000 anti-tank missiles, among other things. However, whether these supplies will reach them is another matter. These supplies are mainly transported by trucks and other vehicles via overland routes in the west.
However, Russia, which wants to prevent this, could be cut off from supply by its air force. For this reason, Ukraine has been demanding an air blockade from NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) since the early days, but it seems almost impossible to achieve. An air blockade means the establishment of a no-fly zone. If NATO were to establish a no-fly zone, NATO aircraft would need to maintain airspace control. This would result in an air war with Russian aircraft and the risk of entering a war, which makes it impossible for NATO to comply with the request.
Future scenarios
If the capital Kiev falls and the Zelensky regime collapses
The worst-case scenario for Ukraine is to lose President Zelensky, a symbol of resistance. Others have therefore urged him to leave the country, but the President has stated that ‘what I need is ammunition’.
Therefore, if President Zelensky were to leave Ukraine, he would take command outside the country or in the western regions.
In addition, if the President were to be detained or killed, the Prime Minister, Cabinet Ministers and military officers would take command.
What are the chances of Russia using nuclear weapons?
There is concern among western officials that President Putin may decide to use tactical nuclear weapons. It is said that he may use tactical nuclear weapons, which are nuclear weapons with a range of 500 km radius. They are not the same as nuclear ballistic missiles, but they are still nuclear weapons and can easily obliterate a city or two.
Russia has also announced the content of its nuclear strategy for 2022, and whereas previously it was ‘in the event of a threat to the survival of the state’, the new strategy is ‘to prevent the escalation of military conflict’, a much lower hurdle and allows the temporary use of nuclear weapons if war becomes violent.
However, this is primarily a warning to NATO. NATO is the strongest military alliance in the world, so Russia would not stand a chance if it were to fight with conventional forces. This is why Russia is adopting this strategy.
If Russia uses nuclear weapons
If Russia gets impatient or NATO gets aggressive and uses nuclear weapons and they land on a NATO member state, there is a possibility that NATO forces will retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons.
Weaknesses of NATO
NATO, described earlier as the strongest military in the world, has only one weakness in this situation with Ukraine. That is the Sławki Gap. The Sławki Gap is the border between NATO member states Poland and Lithuania. This border line is flanked by Kaliningrad and Belarus. If Russian and Belarusian troops from Kaliningrad were to flow here, Lithuania in the north would be isolated. For this reason, NATO is on the lookout here, because NATO understands this threat, and if it were to attack, NATO would do its utmost to defend it to the death.
These are the circumstances of the war between Ukraine and Russia as known as of 4 March 2022.
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